History So Far: I question the numbers. They send a copy of the report and I promise to respond. Here's the response.
So, I've read it, multiple times. Editorial Director Mike Chapman has even sent a few follow-up charts (at my request) and answered a number of deeper questions.
Two issues at play here: audience size and media spend.
Audience Size: Their numbers on audience sized are based on other reports from other agencies. Honestly, they “feel” (for whatever that is worth) about right, and I have no complaints.
Media Spend: I wasn't satisfied with their conclusions in media spends in the report (final paragraph, page 3) and sent Mike a note. I asked for specifics on where these numbers came from (this was my original beef with the announcement about the report). He gave them to me. In short, they're eMarketer projections of (Podcast) audience size (which are pretty standard – I checked ;-)) multiplied by a lower level of add spend for online to get the 80 million number. If you believe all the numbers to this point, they line up.
In addition, they took a look at the last two months of 2005, what was done there by “EarthLink, Whirlpool, Honda, Volvo, Audi and others” and project those numbers out over this year as well. And, again, if you believe the numbers, they work as well.
So, looking deeper, do the Media Spend numbers ad up (within this little universe – the only way you can run numbers like these)? Why yes, they do!
People could, and probably will, argue sample numbers, is what company X did really “Podcasting” related, etc., but I won't at this point – and doubt I ever will. I'm convinced now, after reading the report, that if you took all the numbers out there (and they did), and ran them (and they did), you will get the numbers they get, and report.
So, the question – is the report “worth it?” And when I say “it,” I mean $695 …
Yes, it is. Any significant media player (eMarketer's audience) who wants to make sense of what is out there needs the information in this report. Could someone re-write the numbers in this thing based on a few weeks of library research – sure, but why do that when the work has already been done? And, some of the conclusions in this report (I'll tease you with one term “mass market“) can only come from someone very used to covering this space. The conclusions are, also, worth far more than the numbers. There are some bigger issues at play here, and they've even begun to examine those as well.
So, $80 million this year, wow, … I think I need to launch another Podcast. Maybe I can get Mike as my first guest.