Update: Here are my 2007 Podcast Predictions.
Not well …
1. Microsoft will launch a very weak Podcast integration scheme into Windows Media Player end of 2006. It will be too complicated for anyone who hasn’t already embraced Podcasting and too limited for those who already have. No one will care.
Kinda funny … Microsoft hasn’t announced squat about Podcasting this year but I was right about the first part … no one cares.
2. In addition to integrating with Audible Wordcast, Apple will announce their own pay-for-content mechanism within iTunes. A slew of twenty-five cent Podcasts will flood the marketplace and suddenly, the CPM model for ad placement will seem attractive again.
Didn’t happen at all.
3. Several high-profile content delivery paradigms leveraging RSS and Podcast-like media delivery systems will arise.
They arrived, but they weren’t high profile at all.
4. Traditional ad buys in Podcasting will raise quickly Q1 and Q2 and plunge even quicker when people realize what they’re getting for their money.
Well known Podcasters are accepting $10 cpm for the stuff right now. Sad.
5. Gnomedex 2006 will be more important to Podcasting than Gnomedex 2005 was.
I’m gonna say I was wrong here. Others might disagree.
6. Tim Bourquin will be approached with really good money to buy the Portable Media Expo. He’ll be smart enough to say no to the first offer.
We’ll never know on this one (sorry, I got no inside scoop). I am pretty impressed that PME and CES are working together right now, however. Again, not trying to imply anything, just saying that some big guys realize the power of what Tim is doing.
7. No wireless iPod in 2006.
We still got a few weeks but I’m gonna claim victory here.
8. Stern will never bring enough subscribers with him to pay for his move to Sirius – let alone justify his salary. The press will continue to act as if it will because they want the technology that is killing them associated with “The Wheel of Sex” and Stutterning John. He’ll quietly fade away because reporters won’t be able to listen for free any more and soundbites won’t be airable – even on Fox.
9. 4 more big level silly money Podcast related payouts. 20 million plus spent on “WHAT?” in 2006.
Podshow got 15 million.
Plugged got 1.65 million.
Podtech grabbed Scoble and Sequoia nabbed Calacanis.
Oh yeah, we passed 20 million. Was it all silly money? Maybe not, but a l feel good about this one.
10. Sorry, but not a single blogger gets on Orpah for being a blogger in 2006.
I’m all for the power of the ‘sphere, and certainly utilize it in my everyday efforts, but it think it’s always good to keep your head attached to your neck.
Final Score: 5 yes – 4 no – 1 we’ll never know.
I’ll announce my 2007 predictions before the end of the year.