You can decide how I did on my 2007 predictions, but I'm gonna claim 5 for 5. Here are my New Media predictions for 2008:
- One major podcast network goes down in flames. The model of the “Podcast Network” is flawed. The goal here isn't to be “the next network” – the goal is to be what happens after the networks kill themselves off (which, by the way, is happening much quicker than I thought it would). Hopefully, those remaining will learn from the fire and change their ways. Note: I have no firsthand knowledge of any specific network about to die – it is just destined to happen.
- The writer's strike doesn't help a single internet celeb go mainstream. As cool as that would be, and as much as i'd like to think it “could happen” – sadly, it won't. As hungry as the public will be for non-reality content very soon, we won't be seeing the Ninja on NBC. Of course, I expect a lot of NBC's audience to find the Ninja while they're searching for “anything new” – but that is another story all together.
- Microsoft Zune podcasting numbers will get impressive quickly. It's very cool within the echo chamber to dismiss Microsoft's Podcasting play but that facts are this – it's real. We saw a nearly 300% increase in traffic at ZuneLuv.com on Christmas day. The numbers will grow, the Podcast mechanism will get better. The numbers will tell the truth.
- Managed RSS systems become popular and important.
Sure, yes, this is why we built Premiumcast.com and why I'm on the boad of advisors for Casgle.com – this is important. RSS is THE paradigm for syndicated content on the Internet but the Google Readers of the world are not the ideal consumption mechanism for my Mom. Somehow, someway, it's gonna get personalized and it ain't gonna be tied to any one service or system.
- The term “podcast” becomes synonymous with “channel” for the general public. This has to happen if we're going to pierce our current ceiling. The strength of the Podcast is the option for it to be transparent. We need to get there asap. This is more a hope/dream of my own but it is what I'll be working for this year.
Thoughts? Predictions of your own?