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My 2011 New Media Predictions

First things first … how did I do on last year’s predictions? I’m going to call 3 out of 5. First commentary on what I predicted for this year.

  • Yup – There will be no real competitor to the iPhone in 2010. Sorry guys but Android still isn’t a real competitor and Windows Phone 7, well, …
  • Yup – “App Stores” will become the goto model for everyone. Ford cars … nuff said. A little silly if you ask me, but it certainly has become the goto model.
  • Nope – We’ll see some desperate last gasps for relevancy from the cable companies. I was right in the “gasps for relevancy” part but I was wrong from where they would come. It’s the “Networks” that want us to take them seriously and are hiring people to make sure we don’t dare watch Chuck on our Google TVs. I still get a chuckle every time Hulu reminds me that I can watch said Chuck on Monday nights at 8p with 4 times the commercials. The Comcast/NBC merger talks will get fascinating as well. The cry for relevancy (as opposed to the rallying cry for innovation) will continue well into next year. Eventually, they’ll get it.
  • Yep – Hulu 1/1/2010 will be dramatically different than Hulu 12/31/2010.Twice as many commercials and very few 15 second spots anymore. I was really surprised this year with HuluPlus but the downright silly implementation of it proves the point that this model isn’t ready for the prime time it streams.
  • Nope – The “App Economy” and easy distribution and product creation models will flood the economy with a bunch of great stuff at prices that can’t sustain businesses. It’s gonna be messy. The only place it got messy was EAs brilliant Christmas iPhone price slashing. I still think it will get messy but the economies of scale do make it fascinating (Angry Birds anyone …?)

But now, … 2011 …

  • The Verizon iPhone will do bigger business than expected and shed some serious light on just how pathetic of a company AT&T really is. Some could call the Verizon iPhone a prediction as well but the clues are too clear for that one. Bringing choice to the iPhone economy will increase sales, lower prices and increase quality as AT&T suddenly finds herself with a competitor again. All good for us. All bad for AT&T shareholders.
  • The 2nd Generation iPad will bring us a very reduced rate on the 1st gen iPad bringing prices (and consumption) close to the Amazon Kindle. I have yet to find an unsatisfied iPad user – I’ve only found people put off by the $499 entry point. That will change this year. Bye bye netbooks …
  • Something MASSIVE from Microsoft is coming to save Microsoft from herself. This might be more of a prayer than a prediction but she’s gonna have to do something very big and very out of the box if she wants to matter at all by 2015. Windows Phone 7 ain’t it. Kinect (although fun) ain’t it. Office 2015 ain’t it. Operating systems are dead. Shrink wrap Office Suites are dead. They’re too late for phone. It has to be something new from the cloud (entertainment is their best best) or something radical in gaming.
  • We’ll see big pushes from YouTube for video rentals, live streaming and cross platform consumption. I’m talking television and movies you start watching on your phone on the commute home and move to your television or computer upon arrival. They have the infrastructure to do it and have more than enough money to make friends quickly with the right partners. They will – regardless of how lame GoogleTV is right now.
  • Social Media will quickly move from buzzworthly catchphrase to reality of online business. Much the same way marketers no longer shake with excitement over the terms PPC or Autoresponders, you’ll find less hype over Facebook and YouTube advertising. You will, however, quickly see it as a part of every serious marketer’s arsenal.

There we go … your thoughts?

Dead In 2010

I tweeted last week that “Acer Chairman says iPad impact not serious … then offers Easter Bunny job as Chief Strategy Director.” Apologies to the Easter Bunny in suggesting he’d take such a demotion but, … let’s face it, with the iPad, the Netbook is dead in 2010.

Today I sit in front of my new MacBook Air typing this in – and I realized something. She’s got no CD/DVD drive, no drives at all. The spinning disk is dead in 2010.

With announcements of “App Store” for Windows, Mac, Windows Phone 7 and more, I felt a bit sad as I put my iLife 11 DVD in my iMac (the Air came with it preloaded (w a USB Restore Key). I’ll never do that again. Shrinkwrap software distribution is dead in 2010.

This morning I sat on the exercise bike and chose from more shows than I could possibly want on my iPad through Hulu Plus and Netflix (delivered over ATT 3G none the less). I love the new show “The Good Guys” but couldn’t even tell you what night it is on (and I remain a TV junkie). Sure, I canceled Cable TV in 2007 but the family simply doesn’t miss it anymore. Yes, Comcast delivers the Webernet to my home but I got Clear and Verizon as options too. No, everybody doesn’t have as many choices, but we do have choices. The Cable Company as monopoly is dead in 2010.

Cali Lewis is at Revision3 and even Adam Curry has taken a “soft exit” from the company formally known as Podshow. Mevio, the company who first sold Podcasters of the dream of quitting the day job, is dead in 2010.

What else is dead in 2010?

What are you going to change in 2011 as a result?