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Dead In 2010

I tweeted last week that “Acer Chairman says iPad impact not serious … then offers Easter Bunny job as Chief Strategy Director.” Apologies to the Easter Bunny in suggesting he’d take such a demotion but, … let’s face it, with the iPad, the Netbook is dead in 2010.

Today I sit in front of my new MacBook Air typing this in – and I realized something. She’s got no CD/DVD drive, no drives at all. The spinning disk is dead in 2010.

With announcements of “App Store” for Windows, Mac, Windows Phone 7 and more, I felt a bit sad as I put my iLife 11 DVD in my iMac (the Air came with it preloaded (w a USB Restore Key). I’ll never do that again. Shrinkwrap software distribution is dead in 2010.

This morning I sat on the exercise bike and chose from more shows than I could possibly want on my iPad through Hulu Plus and Netflix (delivered over ATT 3G none the less). I love the new show “The Good Guys” but couldn’t even tell you what night it is on (and I remain a TV junkie). Sure, I canceled Cable TV in 2007 but the family simply doesn’t miss it anymore. Yes, Comcast delivers the Webernet to my home but I got Clear and Verizon as options too. No, everybody doesn’t have as many choices, but we do have choices. The Cable Company as monopoly is dead in 2010.

Cali Lewis is at Revision3 and even Adam Curry has taken a “soft exit” from the company formally known as Podshow. Mevio, the company who first sold Podcasters of the dream of quitting the day job, is dead in 2010.

What else is dead in 2010?

What are you going to change in 2011 as a result?

Weekend Roundup: Unlimited Edition

This weekend I’m at Brendon Burchard’s Experts Academy event. Unlimited potential in this room. I thought that would be my theme for this update.

I hope you have a weekend of unlimited potential – without the unlimited headaches.

The Rumors Of Podcasting’s Death Are Greatly Exaggerated – But Her Maturity Is Sadly Ignored

Wizzard Media did 1.4 billion Podcast downloads in 2009 – up from 1.2 in 2008.

Video Podcast Network pioneers Revison3 did 1.5 billion minutes of video in 2009, up from less than 1 billion in 2008.

And the numbers keep going up.

Yes, there are some who prognosticate the death of Podcasting who say the numbers are going down or have reached their max. But, if you read the real numbers … the facts don’t lie.

But, we need to be honest here.

These new numbers aren’t from people getting that Podcasting religion. These are coming from iPads and televisions, apps and fan pages, streaming video embeds and on demand buttons. Many of our best audience members have never visited the iTunes Podcast Directory.

In short, people have no more of an idea that they’re getting Podcasting content than they are aware of the codec that delivered them. They got the content the wanted they way they wanted the content.

Oh, and it just worked …

It just worked.

I had lunch today with someone who used to spend 5 figures a month to deliver a small percentage of the media content he’s delivering today with S3. His bill last month was a “few hundred bucks.”

YouTube is now doing 2 billion view days as the standard.

I could go on and on – but I won’t.

If you view Podcasting as anything other than a single part of a multiple-part wonder, your future is bleak.

If you understand just how much we have matured and what you can do about it, you are going to do very well.

Thoughts?

Weekend Roundup: Done With The Experiment Edition

So I’m done with the 30 day part of the iPad Experiment. Next week a video review (or 2) and a special gift for anyone who owns an iPad. Things worth looking at this weekend:

I, along with a few million others, will be playing with their iPads this weekend. This is so much more than a 30 day adventure.

iPad Pre-Order Live At Paul’s iPad

Update: iPad Pre-order Video At YouTube.

With all the excitement about the iPad Pre-Order options tomorrow, I thought I’d do something fun. As we all know, the pre-ordering starts 530a Pacific / 930a Eastern – but we don’t know …

Will there be limits on orders?

Will the Apple Servers be able to handle the traffic?

Will they throw any surprises our way?

So, we’re getting up early tomorrow at Paul’s iPad to Livestream the Pre-Order process. Join us?

Yes, I’m sure we’ll have a replay soon afterward – but there’s nothing like live …

Again, here’s the link to the Live Stream (we’ll start around 515a Pacific).

The Problem With iBooks – The Platform Is Very Limited

The last 10 or so books I’ve read have all been on my Kindle. Not only are we a 2-Kindle family but I can show you that I’ve actually saved money on these devices. Every time I pick up a business book that retails at least fifteen bucks more for the dead tree edition, I realize this isn’t just a convenience issue, it’s a monetary one. And, yes, I make use of the iPhone app as well – but it is hardly the experience I want or need. And, friends, don’t knock e-ink until you’ve read a few books on it.

Side note: on my desk are a few books that only come in print and I can’t, for the moment, pull myself to even crack open.

So, Apple comes out with the iPad and the very cool looking iBooks option. We hear stories of magazines jumping on board quickly and we have something very interesting here. Embedded below is a YouTube Playlist:

At the point I wrote this, the best facts I could find about the iBooks included 1 simple fact that needs to be examined. Again, at the time of writing (3/1/2010), here’s what we know: iBooks only works on the iPad. Kindle products work on the iPad, the iPhone, PCs (Macs coming soon), and Blackberries. In short, my options are to read my stuff on every screen I own, or only one of the screens I own. I can also publish TODAY to the Kindle Network – but that’s another post all together. Obviously there are no details on that, but I don’t see it coming any time soon.

Now if I buy music through iTunes, I can play it on anything (including that Zune). If I buy a television show or movie, I can play it on any of my registered devices in the house (including my iPad).

So, yes, this is a revision 1 release – actually a pre revision 1 release but, right now, iBooks do nothing for me.

So, I ask this question, is the concept of iBooks doing anything for you? Is this something independent content developers should be considering? I guess I don’t get what they’re bringing to the table yet that, simply, isn’t provided much better on the Kindle.

What Screen Is The iPad – And Does It Matter?

There is a concept called the “fourth screen” (link goes to Wikipedia) that you need to be familiar with for this post to make sense. There’s actually a concept of the fifth screen (again, Wikipedia link) as well, but we need to chat about that later.

In short, the idea is that the “first” screen is the movie screen. The “second” is the television. The “third” is the computer. The “fourth” is any mobile screen (like a cell phone, iPod, or PDA).

I’ve been fascinated with the concept of the “fourth screen” because it is, in fact, the true power of what got me into Podcasting so quickly and so passionately. Being able to reach anyone at any place and at any time on that “fourth screen” has been such a pull for me.

The “fourth screen” concept gets a little murky with laptops and, now, the iPad. Are those “third” or “fourth” – or, something else?

This is an extremely important issue from a design an experience angle. I purposely try to make every piece of media I create effective for all the screens because I have an audience that spans them all (well, nobody watching Colligan.com at the movies yet). I recommend you take the same approach as it just makes sense. And it isn’t just me. If you don’t think Hollywood makes sure that the blockbuster Imax films will still work on my Mom’s SD television, you’re nuts.

Let’s admit it, there is only so much you can do with a few inches of phone space. “Fourth screen” marketing needs a gentle touch.

But with the iPad, I have to think a little bit outside of the box. If it’s just a “big iPhone” like some claim, then this will go away quickly.

But, if it is something very different, we need to ponder how we react with it.

Do we think in terms of a simple netbook – i.e., a “third screen” approach?

Do we think in terms of a bigger portable device – i.e., a “fourth screen” take on life?

Or, is this something very, to steal Apple’s term, “different?” If so, will we need to think of design, interaction, commerce, etc., in new terms to make way for what’s to come?

A “fifth screen” (not at all like the one described in Wikipedia above)?

One simple example. If you’ve heard my thoughts on mobile commerce, you know that I don’t think we’re going to see a ton of stuff purchased from a 9 digit phone on low battery. But an iPad on the bus, the classroom, at the airport, etc. We might be onto something very different here.

My gut tells me right now that this is, in fact, something very different. Maybe it’s the geek in me (or the Apple Fan Boy) – or something else. So, … here’s what I’m going to do about it.

The details will be tracked at PaulsiPad.com, but in short, I’m going to buy an iPad the day it comes out and run my business on nothing but the iPad for 30 days. Should be fascinating to say the very least.

So, I end with a few questions that I hope you’ll take a minute or two to answer:

What screen number is the iPad?

Does it matter?

Am I nuts – or on to something?

I look forward to your response ….

Update: I’ve launched A YouTube Channel for Paul’s iPad to keep up to date with great iPad videos (and some stuff I’ll make myself).

Apple’s “Latest Creation” Event (the iPad) – My New Media Perspective

Thanks to Leo Laporte’s Phone, and Gdgt’s live photostream, we got an almost live look at the launch of the (surprised?) iPad. Other great pieces include Wired telling us it’s more about content, Cali Live, and TechCrunch’s live stream.

My thoughts:

The iPad name. Branding is a tough thing, but if anyone can pull it off, Apple can. Lots of folk can have slates or tablets. Only one company can have an iPad. Now they can (and will) charge more.

Mentioning YouTube but not Hulu, etc. I predict here that as this effectively has the ability to kill the purchase of content for the television, … I predict Hulu will try to ban (or severely restrict) the playing of Hulu content on the device. There will be hacks, don’t get me wrong, but, .. yeah, Hulu ain’t gonna like this at all.

Regular mentioning of Podcasts on this bad boy. Nice, but I believe this is more of a positioning statement than anything else. It might be me, but it sounds like Steve is telling some “big media” types that we can do fine without them. And, actually, I agree.

No Flash? That’s what Engadget is telling us. Answers the Boxee/Hulu question – and forces us to download content for the iPad. Hmmmmmmmmmmm.

The iPad Econony.” Steve started the event with thoughts on how Apple is the “biggest” mobile device company on the planet. There is an iPhone economy (and nothing even comes close). I think they’re going for the same thing here. Hubris or brilliance … we’ll see.

Ability to use existing iPhone apps. Obvious, but extremely powerful. There are a couple of iPhone apps that I would use a lot more if I had more space (OmniFocus, Mail, Calendar, InstataPaper, Evernote, etc.) iPhone changed the way we used phones. Mix that power, already built in, with Steve’s comment that netbooks are lousy and we have an interesting new space.

Microphone jack. New media creation device.

The MLB.tv Demo. Yes, MLB has been leading the pack on this one, but those who own there media can all learn from this model of making sure their media is available on every device. An app for your show for the iPad is a LOT MORE (impressive and important) THAN AN RSS FEED.

iPad v Kindle (iBooks). Part of Kindle’s charm for me is the epaper bit (and the eyestrain that it doesn’t cause). I like where Apple is going, but I’m not sure how buying an iBook, only available on my iPad, is better than buying a Kindle book, which I can read on the Kindle, iPhone and iPad. Pricing will be a big issue here. Of course, you can buy MP3s on Amazon that work great on the iPhone – and we know where their positioning is.

iWork for iPad. Don’t underestimate brilliance of this one. If we can get an Office Suite with battery life for less than an Office Suite with laptops (with less battery life), we have a winner in the Enterprise? Remember, the promise is 10 HOURS of batter power. And at $9.99 each, yes, they’re making an Enterprise play …

$30 for unlimited 3G. No contract. But … AT&T. No commitment. But … AT&T. Remember too, this is a GSM chip so you won’t able able to move this over to Verizon without buying a new iPad. Hmmmmmm.

Price. Starting at $499 for 16 gig. $129 more for the 3G options. Most expensive 64gig and 3G – $829.

No camera. Nothing about USB. Not everything you need … but very nice.

125,000 million accounts and credit card numbers. This is a major audience ready to buy your stuff. Will you make it available to them?

Summary: So, she’s gorgeous and (relatively) cheap and a game changer. She doesn’t have the stuff we need to entirely bring her into the world we know (Flash, Camera, etc.). She is also very obviously a v1 product but color me impressed. The enterprise play and the cheaper access option (and the Apple halo effect) mean that it’s going to get a lot of play, quickly. She won’t be the streaming cable cutter like some buzz, but very impressive none the less.

We have what it takes to establish a 3rd category of products … We think we’ve done it.” (Steve Jobs)

Did they?